Anything can happen on race day. We all know that. However, there is one clear favorite heading into the NCAA Cross Country championships on the men’s side and that team is Oklahoma State. Despite running without number two runner Shadrack Kipchirchir and number four runner Kirubel Erassa, the Cowboys tied for the victory at the Midwest Regional and showed just how dominant they will be when inserting Kipchirchir and Erassa into the line-up, as they would have finished with five runners in the top nine.

Such strength up front and solid depth gives Oklahoma State the clear advantage in the men’s race. Coach Dave Smith knows how to get his runners ready for the big dance, and after last year’s runner-up effort to Wisconsin, this squad is hungry to pull off the win.

With all of that said, Oklahoma State knows they’ll be challenged. The four strongest challenges should come from Wisconsin, Iona, Stanford and Colorado.

Wisconsin, who was hurting earlier in the season and were on the edge of even making NCAAs at that point, brought back front-runners Mohammed Ahmed and Reed Connor, who they were considering redshirting at one point. Ahmed is a top five threat, while Connor, pairing with fellow senior Maverick Darling, should push for top 10 finishes. The key to the Badgers success lies in the racing of 4-5 runners Alex Brill and Rob Finnerty. Both athletes are well accomplished, and have big meet experience, but it remains to be seen how each handles back-to-back weekends of racing 10,000 meters.

The most overlooked team seemingly every fall is Iona. The Gaels peak perfectly at nationals nearly every season. Led by top 10 threats Mitch Goose and Matt Gillespie, the squad seems poised to make a run at the title. The true key comes down to Matt Bayley. Bayley was running stride for stride with Goose and Gillespie earlier in the season when they won the Greater Louisville Classic and placed second at the Wisconsin adidas Invitational, however, he had a sub par race at their conference meet then didn’t run at regionals.

If Bayley can run up to his ability at nationals, along with fourth running Daniel Clorley running within 10-15 seconds of those three, the Gaels will be in prime position to not just trophy, but bring home the top prize.

Meanwhile, Stanford is the surprise team of the season. After graduating leaders Chris Derrick and Jake Riley, few counted the Cardinal among the favorite to win a trophy this fall, let alone challenge for the title, but the team has stepped up under new coach Chris Miltenberg and are now ready for the challenge.

Sophomores Joe and Jim Rosa are both running strong, as Joe will challenge for a top 10 finish, while Jim should be eying a top 15-20 finish. Their strength lies in their experienced pack, as Tyler Stutzman, Ben Johnson, Erik Olson and Miles Unterreiner each look for big-time performances. With victories at the Wisconsin adidas Invitational and West Regional, along with a runner-up finish at the Pac-12 Championships, Stanford is as qualified as any team to knock off Oklahoma State.

Last but not least, Colorado comes in rested and ready to race. The Buffaloes shocked the country at Pre-Nationals, easily winning the team title, despite running without their pre-season #1 runner Joe Bosshard and #2 Ammar Moussa. With both runners being non-factors this fall, Colorado has relied on the front running skills of Jake Hurysz, who should challenge for a top 10 finish on Saturday, along with the experience of Martin Medina. The squad won Pre-Nationals and bested Stanford to win the Pac-12 Championships, while placing third at the West Regional. 

The key to success for Colorado is the performance of their core pack. Fourth man Hugh Dowdy is one of the true surprises of the fall. The former 9:39 3,200m runner in high school, finished 12^th at Pre-Nationals and along with third man Blake Theroux, gives the team a potential two more runners vying for All-American status.

There is no question that Wisconsin, Iona, Stanford and Colorado can challenge Oklahoma State but it remains to be seen if any of them have the firepower to match Oklahoma State man for man.